Friday, May 06, 2011

Ray McGovern Killing Bin Laden: the Politics of Assassination

Ray McGovern Killing Bin Laden: the Politics of Assassination

Weekend Edition
May 6 -8, 2011
The Politics of Assassination
What Has Bin Laden's Killing Wrought?

By RAY McGOVERN

As America's morbid celebrations over the killing of Osama bin Laden begin to fade, we are left with a new landscape of risks – and opportunities – created by his slaying at the hands of a U.S. Special Forces team at a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

The range of those future prospects could be found in Wednesday's Washington Post. On the hopeful side, a front-page article reported that the Obama administration was following up bin Laden's death with accelerated peace talks in Afghanistan. On a darker note, a Post editorial hailed bin Laden's slaying as a model for "targeting" Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and his sons.

So, while there is the possibility that the United States might finally begin to wind down a near-decade-long war in Afghanistan, there is the countervailing prospect of the United States consolidating an official policy of assassination and violence as the way to impose Washington's will on the Muslim world.

If the Post's neoconservative editors get their way and the U.S. military is officially transformed into a roving assassination squad – a global "Murder, Inc." – it may turn out that future historians will view this as bin Laden's final victory.

Having already helped create the climate for George W. Bush's administration to overturn longstanding American principles – regarding civil liberties, aggressive war and torture – bin Laden could go to his watery grave with the satisfaction of officially branding the United States as a nation of assassins.

If assassination becomes the preferred calling card of U.S. foreign policy, it also is a safe bet that the lines at al-Qaeda recruiting stations will grow longer, rather than shrink, and that more rounds of retaliatory violence will follow.

However, if Rajiv Chandrasekaran's speculation in the Post's news article is closer to the mark – that bin Laden's death may clear the way for negotiations with the Taliban and a peace settlement in Afghanistan – then something truly positive might be salvaged from this grisly episode. Not only might the 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan start coming home in significant numbers in July, but the United States might finally begin to repair its badly stained reputation as a "beacon" of liberty and the rule of law.

Targeted Killings

The circumstances surrounding the targeted killing of bin Laden remind us how far the United States has strayed from its principles.

Though clearly bin Laden represented an extreme case – as the leader of an international terrorist organization that has slaughtered thousands of innocent people – his killing was not unique. Over the past decade, U.S. Special Forces and sniper teams have been authorized to kill significant numbers of suspected militants on sight.

For instance, in 2007, a case surfaced regarding two U.S. Special Forces soldiers who took part in the execution of an Afghan man who was a suspected leader of an insurgent group. Special Forces Capt. Dave Staffel and Sgt. Troy Anderson were leading a team of Afghan soldiers when an informant told them where the suspected insurgent leader was hiding. The U.S.-led contingent found a man believed to be Nawab Buntangyar walking outside his compound near the village of Hasan Kheyl.

While the Americans kept their distance out of fear the suspect might be wearing a suicide vest, the man was questioned about his name and the Americans checked his description against a list from the Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force Afghanistan, known as "the kill-or-capture list."

Concluding that the man was Nawab Buntangyar, Staffel gave the order to shoot, and Anderson – from a distance of about 100 yards away – fired a bullet through the man's head, killing him instantly.

The soldiers viewed the killing as "a textbook example of a classified mission completed in accordance with the American rules of engagement," the New York Times reported. "The men said such rules allowed them to kill Buntangyar, whom the American military had designated a terrorist cell leader, once they positively identified him."

Staffel's civilian lawyer Mark Waple said the Army's Criminal Investigation Command concluded that the shooting was "justifiable homicide," but a two-star general in Afghanistan instigated a murder charge against the two men. That case, however, foundered over accusations that the charge was improperly filed. [NYT, Sept. 17, 2007]

According to evidence in a court martial at Fort Bragg, the earlier Army investigation cleared the two soldiers because they had been operating under rules of engagement that empowered them to kill individuals who have been designated "enemy combatants," even if the targets were unarmed and presented no visible threat.

In September 2007, a U.S. military judge dismissed all charges against the two soldiers, ruling it was conceivable that the detained Afghan was wearing a suicide explosive belt, though there was no evidence that he was. [For more details, see Consortiumnews.com's "Bush Turns US Soldiers into Murderers."]

In other words, the killing of Osama bin Laden was within well-established "rules of engagement" started under President Bush and continued by President Barack Obama. Obama's proud announcement on Sunday evening that "a small team of Americans" had killed bin Laden reflected not an anomalous action but a pattern of behavior, made distinctive only by the prominence of the target.

"At my direction," Obama said, "a small team of Americans carried out the operation with extraordinary courage and capability. … After a firefight, they killed Osama bin Laden and took custody of his body."

Revised Accounts

On Monday, John Brennan, Obama's special assistant on terrorism, claimed that bin Laden either had a gun or was reaching for a gun when he was shot, but the White House on Tuesday amended that statement to say that bin Laden was unarmed when killed.

Further U.S. revisions of the official story followed on Wednesday, as U.S. officials acknowledged that the "firefight" in Abbottabad was extremely one-sided. They told the New York Times that only one of bin Laden's "couriers," Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, fired at the U.S. team from a nearby guesthouse before he and a woman with him were slain.

After the U.S. troops entered the main building housing bin Laden, they assumed people they encountered might be armed, the U.S. officials said. According to this account, a second "courier" was killed inside the house as he was believed to be preparing to fire. One of bin Laden's sons who reportedly lunged toward the attackers was killed, too.

Upon reaching the third-floor room where bin Laden was, the U.S. team spotted him within reach of an AK-47 and a Makarov pistol, the U.S. officials said. The commandos then shot and killed him and wounded a woman, apparently one of his wives.

It is, of course, difficult to second-guess the split-second decisions of commandos on a dangerous nighttime mission as to whether there was a reasonable prospect of taking bin Laden alive or whether he did constitute a lethal threat.

But their rules of engagement clearly were to shoot first and ask questions later. As CIA Director Leon Panetta explained in TV interviews, the commandos were authorized to kill bin Laden on sight, although they were prepared to accept his surrender if there was no sign of resistance.

Put differently, the orders were to "kill or capture" rather than "capture or kill." And the "kill" option appeared to be the favored choice.

Obama himself suggested that priority in his Sunday address, disclosing that at the start of his presidency, he ordered Panetta "to make the killing or capture of bin Laden the top priority of our war against al-Qaeda, even as we continued our broader efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat his network."

Obama, a former professor of constitutional law, has come a long way in accepting the frame of reference created by his predecessor who smirked at the niceties of international law and whose White House counsel Alberto Gonzales mocked the Geneva Conventions as "quaint" and "obsolete."

Dangers Ahead

As details of the bin Laden raid – and then the corrected details – spill out over the next several days, it is hard to predict the reaction in the Muslim world, and particularly in nuclear-armed Pakistan, where the targeted killing took place. Extremists of all stripes may be given extra incentive to upend governments that acquiesce to American violations of their sovereignty. There are also heightened dangers of anti-U.S. terrorist attacks.

In Pakistan, where U.S. drone strikes against Taliban and al-Qaeda militants, have been a major bone of contention, the bin Laden assault has already increased the turbulence in U.S.-Pakistani relations.

According to both governments, Obama chose not to inform President Asif Ali Zardari until the nighttime raid was finished, apparently fearing that Pakistani authorities might tip off the bin Laden compound. Only after the fact did Obama reach Zardari by telephone to let him know what had just gone down.

The Pakistani government responded with a stern official statement of the obvious, that the "unilateral" attack had violated Pakistan's "sovereignty." But there was embarrassment, too, that the world's most hunted terrorist had been found living in a million-dollar compound just down the road from Pakistan's top military academia and a military base.

That fact set – and the history of Pakistan's chief intelligence agency, the ISI, playing double games regarding Islamic extremism – were factors in Obama's decision to go it alone, Panetta suggested in an interview with Time magazine.

"It was decided that any effort to work with the Pakistanis could jeopardize the mission," the CIA director said. "They might alert the targets."

Still, the impression of the U.S. running roughshod over the Pakistani government will make it more difficult for senior Pakistani military and government officials to cooperate – or even pretend to cooperate – with the U.S. war across the border in Afghanistan. Zardari is already in a peck of trouble. His very position as president is in jeopardy.

That means Zardari will be under still more pressure to demonstrate his independence of Washington at a time when Pakistanis perceive they have been subjected to a string of indignities, even preceding the high-profile controversy over the bin Laden raid.

Whether or not the Pakistani military decides to allow President Zardari to remain in office, many Pakistanis are likely to react strongly against the U.S. at a time when bilateral relations are already at their nadir. Since Sunday, many U.S. officials have harshly criticized Pakistan for harboring bin Laden, with some suggesting major cuts in U.S. aid, which has totaled about $20 billion over the past decade.

For its part, Pakistan can retaliate by blocking the resupply of U.S. and NATO forces along roads to the Khyber Pass and into Afghanistan. This extremely long logistics line may well prove the Achilles heel of the entire U.S. war effort. No one knows this better than the Pakistanis who have already shown themselves ready to use the leverage afforded by NATO's dependence on the difficult supply line.

Ignoring Other Options

In favoring killing over capture, it also appears that the United States passed up the prospects of questioning bin Laden about al-Qaeda in favor of killing him, all the better to avoid the messy legal complications of how to proceed against him.

Yet, there are commonly accepted legal ways to capture and bring such people to a court of law — yes, even violent "bad guys" like Osama bin Laden. It is difficult – especially given the complexities with Pakistani authorities and the risks involved in grabbing a dangerous target – but it can be done.

That bin Laden might have had extremely valuable information to impart to interrogators is a no-brainer. But some of that information also might have been embarrassing to important elements of the U.S. government, especially considering his longstanding relationship with the CIA going back to the 1980s and the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan.

Much as some prominent U.S. officials breathed a sigh of relief when Iraq's deposed dictator Saddam Hussein was hanged in 2006 – avoiding a thorough investigation that might have exposed unwelcome secrets dating back to the 1980s – some operatives from the same period probably are glad that bin Laden's secrets are now buried at sea.

Yet, despite the future risks for the United States and the Muslim world – and the fact that the U.S. assault was a fairly clear violation of international law – the killing of bin Laden paradoxically does offer a possible route back from the institutionalization of American lawlessness.

Since bin Laden and his actions on 9/11 created the shock that allowed the Bush administration to lead the United States into the "dark side" of "enhanced interrogations," "preemptive wars" and a wholesale assault on civil liberties, it could follow that the death of bin Laden will permit a retracing of those steps.

The first step in that journey would be a serious attempt to negotiate a political settlement in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of American and NATO troops. If enough public pressure is brought to bear, there could even be a full-scale reassessment of U.S. priorities focusing on what economists call "opportunity costs."

Only with strong grass roots pressure, including nonviolent civil disobedience when appropriate, will there be any real hope that the demon of "terrorism" periodically resurrected by the politicians can be exorcised. That, in turn, could bring an early end to the squandering of $2 billion a week into the stalemate in Afghanistan; the allocation of those resources to job creation and educational opportunity for tens of millions of Americans; and stanching the alarming erosion of the liberties the Constitution was carefully crafted to guarantee and the President solemnly sworn to enforce.

Ray McGovern was an Army officer and CIA analyst for almost 30 year. He now serves on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. He is a contributor to Imperial Crusades: Iraq, Afghanistan and Yugoslavia, edited by Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St. Clair (Verso). He can be reached at: rrmcgovern@gmail.com.

A shorter version of this article appears at Consortiumnews.com.

Thursday, May 05, 2011

After 50 years of decline, household size is growing - USATODAY.com

After 50 years of decline, household size is growing - USATODAY.com

A half-century slide in the number of people living under one roof has ended and has even reversed in some places, according to 2010 Census data released today.

* More people are living under one roof, according to new Census data.

File photo by Gene J. Puskar, AP

More people are living under one roof, according to new Census data.

EnlargeClose

File photo by Gene J. Puskar, AP

More people are living under one roof, according to new Census data.

Average household size is inching up in Florida (2.48 persons per household vs. 2.46 in 2000) and has stopped declining in Tennessee (2.48), according to the first wave of detailed data on 12 states and the District of Columbia.

The change was most dramatic for renters: The average household size in rentals rose or stayed flat in 11 of the states from 2000 to 2010. The biggest increases are in Florida and Tennessee.

Just as growing affluence let many Americans live with fewer people, the recession, high unemployment and the housing bust now are forcing some people to double up.

*
INTERACTIVE: Your state, town Census data

A family that lost its home to foreclosure may either rent or live with friends or relatives.

"The economy played a large role," says Zhenchao Qian, sociology professor at Ohio State University who is doing research for the US 2010 Census Project, which studies trends in American society.

That's why an increasing number of young adults are living with their parents — including "boomerang kids" who return after college. The percentage of young adults ages 19 to 29 who are living with their parents rose from 25% in 1980 to 34% in the late 2000s, Qian's research shows.

"Young adults have poor job prospects when the economy is bad," he says.
Household size

Average household size in the USA:

*American Community Survey

Source: Census Bureau

There is less of a rush to the altar as a result, which cuts the creation of households — a factor for planners and home builders.

The rapid growth in immigrants also affects household size, says William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution. Many embrace living with in-laws and family even after they marry, and others are forced into those arrangements because of cost.

Other highlights from the Census data:

•Getting older. The median age (half older, half younger) in Maine is 42.7 — the highest of any state released so far. All the states showed declines in the number of people ages 35 to 44 and gains among those ages 45 to 74, Frey's analysis shows.

The oldest of 77 million Baby Boomers turn 65 this year and that generation is driving the aging in most states, says Kenneth Johnson, demographer at the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire.

The share of people older than 65 in Florida actually dropped even though the median age rose from 38.7 to 40.7.

"We really are seeing the lull before the storm of the Baby Boom,'' Johnson says.

•Fewer traditional households. All 12 states and the District of Columbia showed drops in the share of married-with-children families. The number of married couples who have no children rose in every state, in part because millions of Baby Boomers became empty nesters.

"Overall, it's clear that non-family households are gaining more than family households, and households without children are growing faster than those with children,'' Frey says.

After 50 years of decline, household size is growing - USATODAY.com

After 50 years of decline, household size is growing - USATODAY.com

A half-century slide in the number of people living under one roof has ended and has even reversed in some places, according to 2010 Census data released today.

* More people are living under one roof, according to new Census data.

File photo by Gene J. Puskar, AP

More people are living under one roof, according to new Census data.

EnlargeClose

File photo by Gene J. Puskar, AP

More people are living under one roof, according to new Census data.

Average household size is inching up in Florida (2.48 persons per household vs. 2.46 in 2000) and has stopped declining in Tennessee (2.48), according to the first wave of detailed data on 12 states and the District of Columbia.

The change was most dramatic for renters: The average household size in rentals rose or stayed flat in 11 of the states from 2000 to 2010. The biggest increases are in Florida and Tennessee.

Just as growing affluence let many Americans live with fewer people, the recession, high unemployment and the housing bust now are forcing some people to double up.

*
INTERACTIVE: Your state, town Census data

A family that lost its home to foreclosure may either rent or live with friends or relatives.

"The economy played a large role," says Zhenchao Qian, sociology professor at Ohio State University who is doing research for the US 2010 Census Project, which studies trends in American society.

That's why an increasing number of young adults are living with their parents — including "boomerang kids" who return after college. The percentage of young adults ages 19 to 29 who are living with their parents rose from 25% in 1980 to 34% in the late 2000s, Qian's research shows.

"Young adults have poor job prospects when the economy is bad," he says.
Household size

Average household size in the USA:

*American Community Survey

Source: Census Bureau

There is less of a rush to the altar as a result, which cuts the creation of households — a factor for planners and home builders.

The rapid growth in immigrants also affects household size, says William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution. Many embrace living with in-laws and family even after they marry, and others are forced into those arrangements because of cost.

Other highlights from the Census data:

•Getting older. The median age (half older, half younger) in Maine is 42.7 — the highest of any state released so far. All the states showed declines in the number of people ages 35 to 44 and gains among those ages 45 to 74, Frey's analysis shows.

The oldest of 77 million Baby Boomers turn 65 this year and that generation is driving the aging in most states, says Kenneth Johnson, demographer at the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire.

The share of people older than 65 in Florida actually dropped even though the median age rose from 38.7 to 40.7.

"We really are seeing the lull before the storm of the Baby Boom,'' Johnson says.

•Fewer traditional households. All 12 states and the District of Columbia showed drops in the share of married-with-children families. The number of married couples who have no children rose in every state, in part because millions of Baby Boomers became empty nesters.

"Overall, it's clear that non-family households are gaining more than family households, and households without children are growing faster than those with children,'' Frey says.

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Hillbilly Report:: Sunday Train: West Virginia River Runner Rail and the Steel Interstates

Hillbilly Report:: Sunday Train: West Virginia River Runner Rail and the Steel Interstates

Burning the Midnight Oil for Living Energy Independence

The flashy rail projects are the very HSR projects to build bullet trains serving urban areas with millions of people.

But the role of rail in supporting sustainable extends beyond the bullet train system alone. It may not be critical to the financial success of these bullet trains to provide service to people living in urban areas of 50,000 to 200,000 ~ but its critical to these people to have access to some form of sustainable intercity transport.

Indeed, if we are going to be harvesting wind power, solar power, sustainably coppiced biocoal, geothermal, run of river hydro, and other sustainable resources ... we are going to be creating incomes in areas away from the 1m+ cities. We best look after the needs of the people who come to those areas looking for work.
BruceMcF :: Sunday Train: West Virginia River Runner Rail and the Steel Interstates
The Steel Interstate Concept

I'll begin again with a refresher on the Steel Interstate concept. The Steel Interstates would be publicly owned rail infrastructure that provides the upgrades to existing Dept. of Defense Strategic Rail Corridor NETwork (STRACNET) rail lines to allow 100mph freight trains to operate high reliability schedules, and overhead electric catenary infrastructure to power electric trains trains on both the existing and new track.

This is an idea originally based on a proposal by CSX. However, the CSX proposal segregated passenger rail and freight rail to form a Steel Interstate in the Southeast. I'm proposing extending that to allow for a specific type of Rapid Freight Rail to use the higher speed track as well. At the same time, the public authorities charged with building the Rapid Freight Rail would have the flexibility to negotiate other corridor designs with the owner of the rail corridor. How much separation is required between the heavy freight and Rapid Rail corridors depends in part on anticipated traffic ~ some lines might, for instance, be single track for 40 miles and double track for 10 miles, if that provides sufficient capacity and the corridor owner is satisfied with that arrangement (since the lower the capital cost, the lower the access fees per vehicle mile).

The Rapid Freight Rail allows trucks to haul container freight to origin and from destination marshaling yards, with the container hauled at high speed in between, and provide better loading dock to loading dock transit time than a direct long haul truck. The 90%+ improvement in energy efficiency running by electric rail compared to diesel trucks offers both commercial benefit in addition to substantial reduction in oil addiction.

The overhead electric catenary support structures are built to also be able to carry High Voltage Direct Current "Electricity Superhighway" long distance grid to grid power ~ at roughly 5% losses per 1,000 miles ~ to allow these lines to take advantage of the Steel Interstates anywhere along the corridor it may be of use, either now or in the future.

The public finance of the Steel Interstates consists of some dedicated source of funding for interest rate subsidies, with the original capital cost of the system refunded by the user and access fees paid by the users.

I organized the Steel Interstates into four distinct "Lines", each of which would be developed by a "Line Development Bank":

* The Liberty Line from Boston to California via the Shenandoah and Tennessee River Valleys, through to Texas and the Southwest;
* The National Line, from Delaware through through the middle of the country to St. Louis, Denver and Salt Lake City, then forking to San Francisco and the Pacific Northwest;
* The Gulf and Atlantic, along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, forking to El Paso and Denver; and
* The Heartland, with two legs, from NOLA along a north by northeasterly alignment to Buffalo and Toronto, Canada, and Miami along a north by northwesterly alignment through Chicago, Minnesota, and Winnipeg, Canada.


OK, So What Good is that for Charlseston, West Virginia?

Last week, I imagined a proud lines-on-a-map drawer showing these maps to an honest upstanding resident of west Akron. They would, naturally enough, look to puzzle out where Akron is on that map. "Wait, does that Heartland there run up through Akron or Canton?"

And the answer I suggested was, "no, but getting them in place can help us build passenger rail services through Akron and Canton."

This week is the same type of imaginary conversation, but in Charleston of God's Own West Virginia: "Yeah, sounds good for people in cities. Yet one more way for cities to soak up all the transport money so Appalachia is once more stuck without."

And ~ well at first blush, fair enough. It took until the 60's to bring the severe under-provision of passable roads in Appalachia to public notice, and just as those roads get finished, we find that we have to move to oil-independent transport, leaving Appalachia once again out in the cold.

And while the Amtrak Cardinal service keeps running, it only runs three times a week, and its right down near the bottom of the list for operating ratio, yielding less than a third of its operating cost in farebox revenue. To the right is the DC to Chicago portion of the Amtrak Cardinal line. I'll note that only the section from Cincinnati to DC is mapped out along the actual rail lines on the Google Map, to capture them in their squiggly glory ~ the section from Cincinnati to Chicago is just point to point on the places listed in the Amtrak route guide.

The Cardinal provides some service, and with the proposed upgrade to every weekday, will provide even more:

* Charleston, WV 8:10pm / Huntington, WV 9:35pm / Chicago 10:05 am
* Huntington, WV 7:09am / Charleston, WV 8:16pm / DC 5:55pm / NYC 9:45pm

So its a day train running east and a night train running west, as well as providing a full day in Charleston WV from Huntington WV. These are the two notable WV urban area populations served, but it also serves some smaller riverside towns of eastern WV ~ and while not a substantial source of patronage from an Amtrak perspective, having the train is probably of substantial importance to the residents of these towns and hinterland.

The operating ratio ~ the recovery of operating costs from service revenues ~ is quite low. But given the transit (station to station) speeds, that is not surprising. Charleston to DC driving is a "GoogleTime" of ~6hrs, while riding it is ~10hrs on the timetable. The problem, of course, are all of those curves up there on that map.


River Runner Rail

Turning on the Google terrain feature gives an indication of what the Cardinal is up against: turns. Lots and lots of turns.

I referred to an earlier version of a route based partly on the Cardinal alignment as a "Ridge Runner", but that is a misnomer. The trains of WV tend to be River Runners. The only way to get ground that is level enough for the gradients that trains want is to go to the river bank, and in this kind of terrain the rivers snake their way through the mountains and hills.

Say that a turn has 6° of curvature. This is flat track ~ a lot of the freight on these lines are heavily laden coal trains, after all. Trains have been allowed to run at 3in of unbalance through a curve ~ measured in terms of how high you have to raise the outside rail so the train would be balanced between the inside and outside rail. And at 6° of curvature, flat track and a 3in. allowed unbalanced, the speed limit is 27mph.

Some of these curves will be tighter than that: at 12° of curvature, flat track, and 3in. allowed unbalanced, the maximum speed is 19mph.

And speed is miles per hour, not hours per mile: the average transit speed is the average of the speeds weighted by the time taken at each speed, not weighted by the distance traveled at each speed. So slowing the speed for a curve both puts a smaller number in the average, and since it takes longer to clear that section of track, that slow speed has a higher weight.

One solution is, of course, Express Track. A track that is laid out at the 1% gradients preferred by heavy freight opens up the opportunity to put in cutouts that climb the river bank at 2.5% gradients. By climbing the riverbank when it bends out, they shorten the curve and straighten the curve. For the most binding sections, entire loops can be cutout by work that relies on steeper gradient, but for others, simply running a bit higher up the bank with the occasional short section of viaduct can result in substantial speedup.

Normally much less expensive is to ride just a little higher on the bank and put in an Express section that has its own elevation built into its curves. Add 6in of banking, and the speed limits go up substantially: 46mph for 6° curves, and 33mph for 12° curves.

On top of this, the service can be provided by tilt trains. The passive tilt mechanism that Talgo developed in Spain can be used by diesel trains. A tilt train allowed to work at 6in. of unbalance under the new Federal Railway Authority regulation (slated to come into affect 12 September of this year) would be able to go around a 6° curve at 53mph, and notionally be able to go around a 12° curve at 38mph.

One wrinkle here is that the passive tilt mechanism, developed by Talgo and able to be used by diesel power trains, is locked out at slower speeds. A lockout at 45mph implies that the benefit of the tilt mechanism is only available where the curvature can be kept at about 7° or less. So the adoption of tilt trains for "River Runner" routes only gives the full benefit when there are sufficient stretches of track where the curvature allows the tilt mechanism to engage in the first place.

The final upgrade, though this would likely require multiple services using the corridor daily to justify, is electrification of the corridor. Not only do electric trains accelerate out of slow sections more quickly, but they also allow active tilt to be used, which can be tuned to give best performance for each curve enroute.


Increasing Service Frequency

Now, even two intercity rail services running through a rural area each day can be a tremendous boost to opportunities to provide sustainable rural local transport. With four trains through ~ the two services each way ~ a local pluggable electric shuttle van or bus can run a regular route to the station to meet each service. In areas without the density to support this, a through route can run to meet the first, run through a local area to meet the second, run through another to meet the third, and running through another to meet the fourth, with a second service running in the opposite direction. If one of the stations is the station serving an urban area, access to that urban area is combined with connections to the train stations.

And, of course, relatively inexpensive neighborhood electric vehicles with a round trip range of thirty miles have a one-way distance of thirty miles if there is a park-and-charge lot at the local train station ~ or park-and-charge lot for bus connecting to the train.

But if the Cardinal is not really getting by now, how is it possible to run two per day?

Well, it might no be ~ but it doesn't have to be the Cardinal, either.

An "urban area" in the US census is a clustered set of blocks that are 1,000 people or more per square mile, to which is added neighboring blocks that are 500 people or more per square mile. I use that as a marker for possible intercity rail demand since the "metropolitan area" is often such a large geographic unit.

So, consider the fact that the two largest urban centers contained or partly contained within West Virginia, Charleston (182,000 / 166th) and Huntington (177,000 171st) are along this corridor. And further west along the Ohio is Portsmouth Ohio, just about due south of Columbus. So what if a River Runner went up to Columbus ~ that is, ran Columbus / Huntington / Charleston / DC.

Setting aside our current Ohio governor, if the Ohio Hub system or anything close to it is built it, this is a very interesting route. From Columbus it will be possible to catch a faster train to Chicago (on the Fort Wayne alignment), to Cleveland, and to Pittsburgh.

Now, how fast might this alignment be?

At present, Huntington WV to Charlottesville, VA on the Cardinal is 7:09am to 2:47pm, or +7:38. The drive follows a very similar route, is given a GoogleTime™ of 4:52 with tolls, 5:50 without. Upgrades to passing track and operation of tilt trains on the corridor could allow the train to do almost as well as driving, but I'll add some leeway for about an hour's worth of improvements as being just too damn expensive, so I'll place it at about 6:30.

The driving route from Huntington to Columbus is estimated at 4:46 to 4:55. A tilt train in this terrain should be able to beat cars by some margin, so I'll place this at 4:00.

And Charlottesville VA to DC is 2:25 on the Northeast Regional from Lynchburg.

Adding that all up, and we have a route of about 13hrs. Which, for providing cost effective service on a regular timetable, is damn awkward (one might even say unlucky). However ...

... we are at Washington DC. And as I already noted, southeastern WV is not the most direct way to get from DC through to its northeast: the Capital Ltd route to Pittsburgh is. And, of course, Pittsburgh to Columbus is part of the plans for the Ohio Hub that are now, once again, sitting collecting dust in some office in the Ohio Railway Development Commission ~ and in any event, would be on the National Line in the Steel Interstate Route Network that I sketched out.

Let me slot those two portions of corridor in. This second map that I am overlaying included other corridor sections, but focus on DC to Columbus via Pittsburgh. The Capital Corridor DC/Pittsburgh time is 7:43. The competitive "GoogleTime" for driving is about 4:40, but along a more direct road alignment, so I will slate it in at 5:30.

And we already have a planning timetable for River Runner trains running Pittsburgh to Columbus, in the ORDC Ohio Hub project reports, at 3:15, which gives a national 8:45.

The combined notional time of the "River Runner Loop" is 21:45, which is much more like it. Two trains, running around the loop in opposite directions, can provide service each way, each day.

As to scheduling, I would say that the target is to run the DC/West Virginia legs as sleeper services, so that Charleston westbound is in the morning, complementing the evening Cardinal westbound, and Charleston eastbound is in the evening, complementing the daytime Cardinal eastbound. Columbus / DC via Pittsburgh would then be a daytime corridor service in both directions.

That also balances out the Columbus/DC demand. If the longer leg of the route is arriving in DC at 7am, it left Charleston at 11pm, and left Columbus at 6pm the previous day, which means leaving Columbus after normal Close of Business hours, and arriving in DC ready for a full day ahead. On the same schedule, if it is arriving in Charleston at 7am, it left DC at 11am, and arrives in Columbus at 1pm. Of course, with DC along the Northeast Corridor (soon to be effectively extended from Virginia through to North Carolina), there are connections available both arriving for a late departure and leaving after an early arrival, and on the Columbus side, 1pm and 6pm are smack in the middle of connections in all directions.


A Sleeper Service? How ... 21st Century

A long time ago, some clever people worked out that if people were sleeping while the train was running through the night, rather than the night running being a disadvantage, it could be an advantage, in terms of shortening the trip. The trick is to get a cost effective modern version of a sleeper service.

But really, its not much of a trick. When this set is running through the middle of the night, the total number demanded will be fewer than when it is running through the day.

For business class compartments, you have compartment seating with facing 2x2 seating. As a night train compartment, it is a two seat, two bed roomette, with the window side facing seats forming one bed, and a second bed folding down above it. For coach class seating, you have seats that normally have 30 degree recline. In night service, half the rows are locked upright and not sold, and the 60 degree recline and extending footrests of the other half are unlocked.

Indeed, with these designs, there's no need for the "end of sleeper service" to be any hard and fast time. Every car is a sleeper car, properly set up, and every car is a day corridor service car, properly set up. Indeed, "sleeping service" quality could be sold at an extra price ~ or offered as a special upgrade ~ to travelers at any time of day. any ticket sold for a journey of a long enough travel time, and running part of the trip between 10pm and 6am, would be automatically set up as a sleeping service, at the normal fare per passenger mile.


Of Course, Much Still Remains to be done

I've mentioned my use of US Census urban center populations as my indicator for total intercity transport demand in a given central place. The following are the list of urban centers of 40,000 or more people that are either contained in or overlap into West Virginia, with the ones served by the River Runner Loop in boldface:

* Charleston WV, 183,000 (166th)
* Huntington WV-KY-OH, 178,000 (171st)
* Hagerstown MD-WV-PA, 120,000 (221st)
* Wheeling WV-OH, 88,000 (294th)
* Parkersburg WV-OH, 86,000 (297th)
* Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH-PA, 74,000 (327th)
* Morgantown WV, 56,000 (408th)
* Cumberland MD-WV-PA, 52,000 (434th)
* Beckley WV, 47,000 (469th)

I have italicized Wheeling, which is close enough to Weirton WV for a local shuttle bus. Given that, the only urban centers of over 40,000 left stranded by this route are Parkersburg and Morgantown ... which suggests one more link is needed, somewhere. Complicating matters is that the rail corridor connecting those two urban areas is no longer there, with the rail line running north south through Parkersburg connecting over the Ohio through to Athens ~ but to the east, its been abandoned, and land banked as a rail-trail.

So there's more work to be done. And of course, there's also the little matter of actually building the routes in the decade ahead.

Hammad Said: The Enigma of Osama's Hideout

Hammad Said: The Enigma of Osama's Hideout

The Enigma of Osama's Hideout

By HAMMAD SAID

Winston Churchill's famous quote about Stalinist Russia that it is "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma", could very well apply to the circumstances leading up to the operation to get Bin-Laden, especially to the role of Pakistan in the whole episode. The location of Osama's hideout - in a veritable military garrison town, a few hours' drive from the capital – naturally raises questions about the extent to which Pakistan security apparatus – specifically ISI – had been complicit in providing him a sanctuary at a place which could be deemed the safest from the military's point of view. If one juxtaposes the location of the hideout with the long litany of US publicly and sometimes not publicly expressed suspicion of Islamabad not "doing enough" in denying the "jehadi groups" the safe sanctuaries, the evidence pointing towards the guilt of ISI in OBL hideout seems pretty damning. Or is it as simple as it is made to look on the surface?

Since I am not privy to the classified facts, I am going to make an assessment based on the publicly available and verifiable facts, and assess where they lead. So let me explore the different hypothesis logically in the light of the given, incontrovertible evidence and see what makes the most sense.

Hypothesis 1: Both ISI and CIA were in ignorance about OBL's hideout, until the brilliant US intelligence work led to his hideout in Pakistan. Then CIA as the US official account maintains acted alone to take him out and only informed the Pakistanis after the mission had been completed or almost completed.

There are two serious problems with this scenario.

First, as Senator Kerry pointed out in his interview with CNN, it would not have been possible for CIA to get the precise intelligence on the hideout without some kind of boots on the ground. And for that to happen, the close co-operation of ISI would have been imperative, admitted as much by Senator Kerry himself. Also it would have been extremely risky almost foolish for Americans to fly four helicopters right into the heart of military garrison without engaging the Pakistanis first. The official US account admits that Pakistan has scrambled jets at some point during the mission, but obviously no interception took place, implying some kind of understanding at the top level.

Second, it is highly implausible that OBL would be hiding as it were in the den of lion without seem kind of tacit assurance as to his protection. It is highly unlikely given the nature of the establishment he was running, literally a stone's throw from the military academy, and it being fortified and tenants acting oddly - that he would not at least elicit some investigation from the Pakistani intelligence. It does not look plausible that if OBL had been on the run for his life from the ISI and USA, he would chose of all the places in Pakistan, one of its most militarized towns to hide. Therefore, the ISI not knowing his hideout does not seem plausible.

Now based on above it seems that ISI did know about OBL's hideout, and the final operation against OBL involved the co-operation between US and ISI.

If OBL had been supported in the hideout by Pakistani security establishment, when and how did CIA come to know about it? Was the ISI acting on its own in providing hideout to OBL? What was its motive in doing that? Read on …

Hypothesis 2: ISI provided the hideout to OBL, without any US knowledge or involvement.

If we establish that OBL was being supported by ISI in his hideout, then the question arises as to the motives for doing that. Why would ISI be supporting the most wanted terrorist in the eyes of the USA and run the risk of inviting the ire of the US? Why when thousands of Pakistani soldiers have died fighting the war in tribal area – and let there be no doubts about that it was being done under US pressure – Pakistan nevertheless , would protect the most sought after prize of that whole campaign? Why when Pakistan rounded up and handed over to US hundreds of Al –Qaida operatives including big names like Khalid Sheik and Ramzi bin al-Shibh, it would run incredible risks to protect the head of the organization? Why would Pakistan which disregarded the potential backlash from local jehadis or domestic opinion or diplomatic compunctions in handing over its own citizens such as Afia Siddiqi and even the Afghan Ambassador to US, nevertheless would take a stand on something with no apparent benefit, but a potential cost of undermining all it has done to aid US in its occupation of Afghanistan?

One can argue that it is not different from Pakistan showing reluctance to go after LET , Jaiseh Mohmmad or the Taliban groups in North wazirstan, all being the instances of Pakistan playing the double game. This argument does not hold water for the simple reason that in all the above cases Pakistan security establishment had in its opinion a very strong rationale for not alienating what it regards rightly or wrongly its strategic assets in occupied Kashmir or post US Afghanistan. There is no equivalent rationale for providing sanctuary to the person most wanted by US compared to the potential cost of inviting the wrath of the "master".

If one steps back and take in a wider picture, it makes absolutely no sense that Pakistan which had been virtually acting like a client state, fighting US war paying enormous price in both human and economic terms, whose political dispensation and economic policy is largely decided by Washington, nevertheless would defy US on one issue where it hurts most, namely protecting the person at the top of the most wanted list.

Therefore, ISI hiding OBL and duping US does not make a rational sense. It does not fit in with the rest of the evidence.

So what is the alternative then? We have already established that OBL could not be hiding there in Abbottabad without ISI's knowledge, and it makes no sense that Pakistan security and political establishment which has been towing the US policy on every significant matter, to the point of even not being able to protect the lives and property of its citizens from drone attacks, would nevertheless commit this act of potential hara-kiri by protecting the number one enemy of US! The dispassionate consideration of the facts, no farfetched conspiracy theories, makes the conclusion inescapable that OBL had been the "goose that lays the golden eggs" which was being protected by ISI with the full knowledge and connivance of CIA.

After OBL outlived his utility – the fear factor has been exploited to the hilt to invade Iraq, sustain campaign in Afghanistan/Iraq etc - at the time which American security apparatus deemed most appropriate for strategic and tactical reasons, they decided to kill the goose which kind of stopped laying the golden eggs. There is a parallel to the fate of Sadam Hussain: he was not removed from the power, but used as a pretext to destroy and bleed the country through sanctions, as a prelude to full scale invasion. At which time it was decided to pull the plug on the asset that had become a liability.

Hammad Said is a software consultant in Portland, Oregon.